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Forecasting techniques improve supply chain resilience by ensuring that the correct parts are available when required. In addition, accurate forecasts conserve precious resources and money by avoiding new start contracts to produce unforeseen part requests, reducing labor intensive cannibalization actions and ensuring consistent transportation modality streams where changes incur cost. This study explores the effectiveness of the United States Air Force’s current flying hour-based demand forecast by comparing it with a sortie-based demand forecast to predict future spare part needs.

This study employs a correlation analysis to show that demand for reparable parts on certain aircraft has a stronger correlation to the number of sorties flown than the number of flying hours. The effect of using the number of sorties flown instead of flying hours is analyzed by employing sorties in the United States Air Force (USAF)’s current reparable parts forecasting model. A comparative analysis on D200 forecasting error is conducted across F-16 and B-52 fleets.

This study finds that the USAF could improve its reparable parts forecast, and subsequently part availability, by employing a sortie-based demand rate for particular aircraft such as the F-16. Additionally, our findings indicate that forecasts for reparable parts on aircraft with low sortie count flying profiles, such as the B-52 fleet, perform better modeling demand as a function of flying hours. Thus, evidence is provided that the Air Force should employ multiple forecasting techniques across its possessed, organically supported aircraft fleets. The improvement of the forecast and subsequent decrease in forecast error will be presented in the Results and Discussion section.

This study is limited by the data-collection environment, which is only reported on an annual basis and is limited to 14 years of historical data. Furthermore, some observations were not included because significant data entry errors resulted in unusable observations.

There are few studies addressing the time measure of USAF reparable component failures. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, there are no studies that analyze spare component demand as a function of sortie numbers and compare the results of forecasts made on a sortie-based demand signal to the current flying hour-based approach to spare parts forecasting. The sortie-based forecast is a novel methodology and is shown to outperform the current flying hour-based method for some aircraft fleets.

The purpose of this research is to explore the utility of autonomous transport across two independent airframe maintenance operations at a single location.

This study leveraged discrete event simulation that encompassed real-world conditions on a United States Air Force flight line. Though the Theory of Constraints (TOC) lens, a high-demand, human-controlled delivery asset is analyzed and the impact of introducing an autonomous rover delivery vehicle is assessed. The authors’ simulations explored varying numbers and networks of rovers as alternative sources of delivery and evaluated these resources’ impact against current flight line operations.

This research indicates that the addition of five autonomous rovers can significantly reduce daily expediter delivery tasks, which results in additional expertise necessary to manage and execute flight line operations. The authors assert that this relief would translate into enhancements in aircraft mission capable rates, which could increase overall transport capacity and cascade into faster cargo delivery times, systemwide. By extension, the authors suggest overall inventory management could be improved through reduction in transportation shipping time variance, which enhances the Department of Defense’s overall supply chain resilience posture.

When compared against existing practices, this novel research provides insight into actual flight line movement and the potential benefits of an alternative autonomous delivery system. Additionally, the research measures the potential savings in the workforce and vehicle use that exceeds the cost of the rovers and their employment.

King Farouk ate 600 oysters a week and his grandfather, Khedive Ismail died in 1895 whilst attempting to down a magnum of champagne in one draught. Just the other day it was discovered Imelda Marcos left 2,700 pairs of shoes behind when she decamped with her equally well‐heeled husband. Such gluttony and waste help to make the world go round however much we despise the perpetrators and, although the Epistle to the Philippians is a fact of Christian joy, those who sell mulloway, fine wine, or tooled leather, prefer reading their sales ledger. It's all about disposable incomes which, however fragmented, coalesce to just one overall tangible figure up for grabs. How does the paintmaker currently fare in this time immemorial street fight?

Much to the relief of everyone, the general election has come and gone and with it the boring television drivel; the result a foregone conclusion. The Labour/Trade Union movement with a severe beating, the worst for half a century, a disaster they have certainly been asking for. Taking a line from the backwoods wisdom of Abraham Lincoln — “You can't fool all the people all the time!” Now, all that most people desire is not to live easy — life is never that and by the nature of things, it cannot be — but to have a reasonably settled, peaceful existence, to work out what they would consider to be their destiny; to be spared the attentions of the planners, the plotters, provocateurs, down to the wilful spoilers and wreckers. They have a right to expect Government protection. We cannot help recalling the memory of a brilliant Saturday, but one of the darkest days of the War, when the earth beneath our feet trembled at the destructive might of fleets of massive bombers overhead, the small silvery Messerschmits weaving above them. Believing all to be lost, we heaped curses on successive Governments which had wrangled over rearmament, especially the “Butter before Guns” brigade, who at the word conscription almost had apoplexy, and left its people exposed to destruction. Now, as then, the question is “Have they learned anything?” With all the countless millions Government costs, its people have the right to claim something for their money, not the least of which is the right to industrial and domestic peace.

The following classified, annotated list of titles is intended to provide reference librarians with a current checklist of new reference books, and is designed to supplement the RSR review column, “Recent Reference Books,” by Frances Neel Cheney. “Reference Books in Print” includes all additional books received prior to the inclusion deadline established for this issue. Appearance in this column does not preclude a later review in RSR. Publishers are urged to send a copy of all new reference books directly to RSR as soon as published, for immediate listing in “Reference Books in Print.” Reference books with imprints older than two years will not be included (with the exception of current reprints or older books newly acquired for distribution by another publisher). The column shall also occasionally include library science or other library related publications of other than a reference character.

This paper examines the development of a small, yet highly significant section of the UK wine market with the arrival of a limited range of organically produced wines on to our mainstream supermarket shelves and highstreet restaurant wine lists. Until recently, UK demand for all organic produce was relatively small, the total size of the UK retail organic market during 1993/1994 being only £105 million (Soil Association Certification Ltd., 2000). The last five years has seen a period of rapid growth, with the same report predicting that the 1999/2000 total sales figure will have increased to £546 million (Soil Association Certification Ltd., 2000). Organic wine still features as a small category within the complete organic picture but experts indicate that the UK market is in a period of significant growth with estimated sales of approximately £7–8 million per annum (Gardener, 2000). The nature of consumers and suppliers involved with the organic food market also appears to be changing. Multinationals have entered the market alongside whole‐food independents, (Blythman, 2000) and the market is seemingly no longer limited to the ‘select few’ of the population willing to seek out and pay the price for a premium product. A recent report suggested that as many as one third of the UK population now buy organic produce of one category or another (Soil Association, 1999). The organic market has apparently ‘come of age’ and as the debate of ‘natural is better’ takes hold, fuelled by continual media coverage, in both the broad‐sheet (Slater, 1998; Dimbleby, 1999) and popular press (Organic Living, 2000). It will be interesting to observe the hospitality industry's response in attempting to keep pace with this developing market.

This chapter argues that in 2000 the Board of Trustees of the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champagne (UIUC), retained Judge Louis B. Garippo to moderate information gathering and to prepare a three-part report to legitimize findings that would deliberately result in no substantive action. The framework of a legal proceeding – whereby Garippo served as judge and the Board of Trustees as jury in absentia – provided the necessary “nonfictions and metaphors of traditional jurisprudence” (Cohen, 1935, p. 812) to construct vehicles of communication in which the dialogue and subsequent report on Chief Illiniwek would be seen as impartial and objective. That framework resulted in “The Chief Illiniwek Dialogue Report (CIDR),” authored by Judge Garippo and presented to the UIUC Board of Trustees on November 8, 2000.

The year 1820 was a landmark in the story of adulteration for in that year was published “A Treatise on the Adulteration of Food, and Culinary Poisons, etc., etc.” by Dr. F. Accum. The first edition of 1,000 copies was sold in a month and a second edition was at once printed. The preface to this second edition says that the author had received a number of anonymous communications containing maledictions and menaces. The book says, “it would be difficult to mention a single article of food which is not to be met with in an adulterated state ; and there are some substances which are, scarcely ever to be procured genuine.” He records that butchers meat and fish were blown by means of a quill or the stem of a tobacco pipe to make the flesh appear firm and glistening. The water used in London came from the Thames which received all the contents of the sewers, drains and water‐courses. He says that no water becomes putrid sooner than that of the Thames, smelling of carburetted and sulphuretted hydrogen gases. Sawdust was used for increasing the stringency of wine and this was supplied by wholesalers to the brewers' druggist as an ordinary article of commerce. Old and stale beer which had gone acid was converted to mild by using oyster shells to neutralise the acid. He states that the detection of adulteration of beer with deleterious vegetable substances is beyond the scope of chemical science ; but within about 20 years methods were available for them. Most lozenges were kept in two grades, the cheaper at half the price being “reduced,” as it was called, with clay, sugar, pepper or other spices. With regard to wine‐brewers he quotes from “The Tatler” of 1797: “There is in this city a certain fraternity of chemical operators who work in underground holes, caverns and dark retired spots to conceal their mysteries from the eyes and observations of mankind. These subterranean philosophers are daily employed in the transmutation of liquors and of the power of magical drugs and incantations, raising under the streets of London the choicest products of the hills and valleys of France. They can squeeze Bordeaux out of the sloe and draw Champagne from an apple.” He records how bottles were “Crusted,” i.e. the interior of empty wine bottles were lined with a red crust to imitate the deposit from wine ; a factitious product was added and the bottles closed with corks having the lower part dyed a fine red as if they had long been in contact with wine. With regard to tea he records how different varieties of leaves from trees and shrubs were first boiled and then baked on an iron plate. When dry they were coloured and rubbed in the hand to produce a curl resembling that of genuine tea. To obtain a green variety, the leaves were coloured with verdigris. Usually the sloe leaf was used. Accum suggested that the housewife could take her part in detecting false teas and said “Our ladies are our teamakers ; let them study the leaf as well as the liquor ; let them become familiar with both vegetables, with their forms, colours, flavours and scents ; let us drink our tea upon the responsibility of our wives, daughters and sisters, and not upon that of our grocers. Let every female distinguish tea leaves from sloe‐leaves, as well as if she had served an apprenticeship in the warehouse in Leadenhall Street.” The reason for the prevalent adulteration of tea was the heavy revenue duties. Spices were also heavily dutied and expensive, and nearly all were adulterated. The pepper duty was 2s. 6d. a lb. and factitious pepper berries were made from linseed cake, clay and cayenne pepper. Accum wrote several books on food technology and did a lot of useful work by lecturing on adulteration ; but probably his greatest service was drawing attention to the dangers from poisoning by metallic compounds either added as colouring matters or introduced accidentally by the use of unsuitable metal containers. These hazards were generally caused through ignorance. For example in “The Falsification of Food” by Mitchell there is an account of an investigation of poisoning by Gloucester cheese. A man was taken seriously ill at an inn and some observant person noticed that a cat became violently ill after eating the rind of the Gloucester cheese which the man had left. The cheese was examined and found to contain large quantities of lead. The manufacturer of the cheese was unable to account for it as he was certain of the purity of his own materials and had purchased the annatto, with which it was coloured, from a reputable firm. This firm was certain that the annatto supplied consisted solely of genuine annatto, improved in colour with vermilion, a normal practice in the trade. On further enquiry it was found that the druggist who had sold the vermilion had assumed it would only be used as a pigment for house painting and had mixed it with red lead to increase his profit and without any suspicion that harm could come of it. The investigator says “Thus through the circuitous and diversified operations of commerce a portion of deadly poison may find admixture into the necessities of life in a way which can attach no criminality to the parties through whose hands it has successively passed.” Although it has been known for over 2,000 years that lead salts were violent poisons, it was for long assumed that metallic lead was insoluble in water and fruit juices. It was a common practice for proprietors of wells to instruct plumbers to use double the thickness of lead because it was known that the local water corroded the lead very quickly. No one had troubled to wonder what became of the corroded metal. A gentleman had 21 children of whom eight died in early infancy. Both parents and the remaining children were remarkably unhealthy, being particularly subject to stomach disorders. The father became paralytic and the mother was continuously subject to colic. When the parents died the house was sold and the children moved ; they immediately improved in health. The purchaser of the house found it necessary to repair the pump and found it so corroded that the cylinder was perforated in several places and the cistern was reduced in thickness to that of brown paper. Too late the cause of years of trouble was discovered. Accum's treatise aroused attention in scientific circles and several other workers investigated food, among whom may be mentioned Mitchell, Normandy, Chevalier, Garner and Harel. But the general public did not read their scientific books. Shortly afterwards there appeared anonymously a small brochure under a long title but generally referred to as “Death in the Pot.” This was written in popular style, had a large sale and a great influence on the public. The immediate result was a wide circulation of knowledge of adulteration and contamination of food and both were generally condemned. A writer expressed the opinion that the life of man would generally be extended to 100 years were it not for his excesses and the adulteration of his food. As regards adulteration the public could do little to prevent it; but the effects of contaminated food being rapid, the people could complain to the sellers and for their own sakes manufacturers were compelled to scrutinise the materials used and to discard colouring matters and metallic utensils which they knew to be dangerous. It has previously been mentioned that Excise Officers were concerned with adulteration in connexion with articles subject to a revenue duty. Tobacco was a source of considerable revenue and the Excise were ever on the watch against adulteration. An Act of 1840 had prohibited the mixing of tobacco with a number of substances but the effect was to increase adulteration with others. One of the Excise Officers, George Phillips, had in his spare time become proficient in chemistry and in the use of the microscope, and he offered his services to the Commissioners of Excise for the particular purpose of examining tobacco for purity. This was eventually agreed to and in 1842 Phillips was given a room for his purpose. His success was immediate and his activities were soon extended to other excisable materials including a variety of foods. This one man and one room eventually became the Inland Revenue Laboratory, Somerset House, which was subsequently constituted into a separate Department known as the Department of the Government Chemist. Its activities now extend to work for all Government Departments, but the original objects for which it was founded over 100 years ago still form an important part of its work. By 1850 the public had become hygiene‐conscious, largely due to the pioneer work of such men as Chadwick, who had been calling attention to unsound and unhealthy conditions in all forms of sanitary services. In that year the “Lancet” established “The Lancet Sanitary Commission” to institute an extensive series of investigations into the condition of various articles of diet supplied to the people. A leading spirit of the Commission was Dr. Hassall who did much experimental work in the examination of commercial foods sold to the public and reported his findings in the “Lancet.” In 1855 he published “Food and its Adulterations, comprising the reports of the Analytical Sanitary Commission of the Lancet for the years 1851–1854.” Hassall exploited the microscope in the detection of adulteration and recorded many pictures of the microscopic characteristics of vegetable foods and adulterants. Without the more refined methods of today he was able to detect adulteration in a very large proportion of the samples examined. For example:—

Motivation constitutes a central topic for business management, because of its critical impact on job performance. Therefore, understanding whether and how the style of leadership adopted by leaders in organizations promotes and maintains employee motivation is of great interest to both scholars and practitioners. Drawing on self-determination theory, this study investigates how ethical and emotional styles of leadership influence employee motivation and thus job performance.

An empirical study was conducted in the public sector in Kuwait. About 607 employees participated in this study. Structural equation modeling techniques were used for testing the causal relationships between constructs.

Results of our study indicate that both ethical and emotional leaderships enhance employee motivation. Furthermore, employee motivation has a positive impact on job performance. The results also show that job performance exerts a negative effect on quitting intentions. Finally, interest in the private sector moderates the job performance–quitting intentions relationship.

These findings provide theoretical contributions to the extant literature, as well as important practical implications for managers.

This study demonstrates the role of both ethical and emotional leaderships in shaping employee behaviors. To the best of our knowledge, this research is among the few that provides initial evidence regarding quitting intentions as an outcome of the impact of ethical and emotional leaderships on employee motivation and individual performance in Kuwait.

Today an estimated 500,000 personal computers have been purchased by Americans who use them at home and in a variety of small business applications. (Note: We define a personal computer as a small, relatively inexpensive, microprocessor‐based device which can be taken out of its box, plugged in and begin working immediately, as opposed to large computers which must be permanently installed, and/or require professional programming. We exclude microprocessor‐based devices whose only function is limited to the playback of packaged games.) Many market research services believe that personal computer sales will continue to grow rapidly, perhaps as fast as a 50 percent annual growth rate for the next several years. The impact of this new interactive information technology coming into the possession of perhaps millions of people can only be guessed at at this early juncture. To us, as librarians, one of the more perceivable results of the growing wave of interest in personal computers has been the proliferation of literature addressed to the personal computer user.